Trump’s Tax Reform Dissected

By Olav Dirkmaat | October 17, 2017

Two weeks ago, the Trump administration presented a detailed version of one of Trump’s most important election promises: a tax reform. What are the consequences of Trump’s recent tax proposal for the US budget deficit and public debt?

Click here to continue reading

The Accounting Cycle and Financial Bubbles: On the Current Indifference on Accounting Methods

By Olav Dirkmaat | September 25, 2017

As long as the stock market is booming, businesses get away with shady accounting practices. What do the recent cases of Netflix, Tesla and Alphabet suggest about what phase of the business cycle we are in?

Click here to continue reading

US GDP Growth a Solid 3%, But Is Trouble Ahead?

By Olav Dirkmaat | September 4, 2017

The US economy is growing at a 3% annual rate. But are things as they seem?

Click here to continue reading

Does the Fed Follow Its Own Rules?

By Daniel Fernández | May 22, 2017

One of the most interesting discussions in the field of monetary theory concerns the role central banks play in the economy. There are multiple views regarding different issues: from questioning the mere existence of the central bank to the actual role a central bank should take.

Click here to continue reading

This Is What Businesses Are Doing with Record Corporate Debt

By Olav Dirkmaat | March 13, 2017

Last year, non-financial companies issued $674.3 billion in corporate debt, a new record high. Low interest rates are wrecking the allocation of capital: the increase in debt is not used to invest, but rather to distribute cash to shareholders. However, there is one important caveat to this whole scheme that will threaten the U.S. economy.

Click here to continue reading

The Poor Economic Criterion for a Remittance Tax

By Estefanía Luján Padilla | March 23, 2017

With the persistence of the new president of the United States to build a wall and his expectation to make Mexicans assume the cost, new creative initiatives to find a way to make them pay it are starting to emerge.

Click here to continue reading

The US Economy: Same as It Ever Was?

By Clynton López | September 5, 2016

The annualized quarterly GDP is growing, but it has been growing at a lower rate since the third quarter of 2015. Commercial and industrial credit is growing at a rate of an economy that is not expanding.

Click here to continue reading

Nominal GDP Target for the United States?

By Clynton López | November 17, 2016

During the last seven years credit volumes did not grow as as in previous liquidity periods, despite having the federal reserve interest rates close to 0%. This means the US economy is not expanding.

Click here to continue reading

Inflation Target or GDP Target: More Ideology?

By Clynton López | November 2, 2016

Today, the central bank debate focuses on whether they should continue to use the inflation target as the main objective for monetary policies or if it should change to a nominal GDP target.

Click here to continue reading

Is the United States in a Real Economic Recovery?

By Clynton López | June 6, 2015

When talking about economic recovery, a distinction must be made between short-term and long-term effects. We’ll label as short-term effects those that last less than a year, and as mid and long term those that last more than a year. In practice, three to five years are needed to determine if effects are long lasting or not.

Click here to continue reading

Get our free exclusive report on our unique methodology to predict recessions