The economic performance in the UK for the coming years will depend on political decisions, many of which will not be based on the wellbeing of the citizens but rather on the wellbeing of the decision-making politicians and bureaucrats.
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Unfortunately, there is nothing more permanent than temporary emergency measures. We are still living with a 45-year-old monetary experiment in which central banks have no direct link to gold.
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The annualized quarterly GDP is growing, but it has been growing at a lower rate since the third quarter of 2015. Commercial and industrial credit is growing at a rate of an economy that is not expanding.
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The private sector has done its job: it has been able to reduce debt and create wealth. The public sector has fallen behind, as countries still have significant public deficits.
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Bond gains have yet to reach the ground, and the 10-year yield dropped below 1%. By contrast, IBEX 35 recorded losses by over 20%, in annual terms; a number that is not far away from European references.
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Another measure affecting the industrial sector is the Producer Price Index, which does not bring good news for industries. Since early 2016, producer prices have been growing at increasing rates.
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When it comes to the equity market, the Swiss Market Index (SMI) continues to trade 10% below the figure for 2007. Despite the economy’s strong growth since then, the multiples at which the shares are currently listed are lower from those of 2007.
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During the last seven years credit volumes did not grow as as in previous liquidity periods, despite having the federal reserve interest rates close to 0%. This means the US economy is not expanding.
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As long as people are pessimistic about the future of the Mexican economy, the peso will continue to fall. It is still uncertain what Donald Trump’s government can and will do.
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The yuan depreciated by nearly 8% since May 2015: it had been appreciating since the last time the exchange rate was established.
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