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United States Q2 2016 Report

The Last Temptation of the Fed

In the second quarter of 2016, the Unites States grew 1.1% (year-on-quarter growth). Although growth rates have remained positive since Q2 2015, the rates are declining. The unemployment rate in Q2 2016 has not changed and remains at 4.9%.


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In the second quarter of 2016, the Unites States grew 1.1% (year-on-quarter growth). Although growth rates have remained positive since Q2 2015, the rates are declining.

The unemployment rate in Q2 2016 has not changed and remains at 4.9%.

The monetary policy of Q2 2016 remains the same; the cost of federal funds is still between 0.25% and 0.50%.

Excess reserve deposits at the Federal Reserve in Q2 continue to show a downward trend.

The M1 and MZM multipliers from February 2016 to July 2016 show positive growth rates.

The reduction of excess reserves and the MZM growth indicate the start of a dynamization of credit in the United States.

In Q2 2016, inflation is at 0.8%—still far away from the target.

Credit is has positive growth rates, but is not yet at the levels of an expansive economy.

The growth of car sales is close to a yearly 18% in Q2 2016. This variable is highly pro-cyclical in the United States and important to follow—it is undergoing a strong recovery and growth.

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